John Patrick's Message Board

Repeat

Frank Stanton — Fri, 09 May 2008 01:55:59 GMT

Two weeks ago at the SHV/BC Horseshoe I sat down at the end of
6 console VPs. I went thru the menu and came to deuces wild.
What I saw gave me reason to play. So I fead it a 5er and poked play. Drew a pair and poked play again BOOP. Well you can't quit on a win(or a push)so once more- three of them ducks !
Well 4 of a kind gets me 4 units-poke ah not quite, just like two years ago at the IP four quackers for 200. This again underlines that if is it's not easy come it most likely will be easy go. Two hits, on 2s wild, two years apart on the second play each time.

At this time I am again watching grand Prix. The first time was at the Imperial theater in Bangkok, two weeks after the world premire at that theater. I was surprised as the show started, as the sensuround effect was new to me. Chills down the spine as it was like sitting in Charlie Blue's 77 sprint car, and/or inside mthe UR2, or Jim Mack's slow 0. The only other place that I have experienced that effect was the Omni Max at Caesars Palace.
The GP show was just about 42 years ago. Frank-S

True life success stories???

Paul — Fri, 09 May 2008 00:20:40 GMT

I would love to hear a few real life success stories (however brief in detail they may be) about some people that actually make a full time living as Pro gambler's w/out any outside financial help. People that can actually pay all their bills & then some by legally gambling off of 1 of the folowing Casino table games or a combination of all 4... Craps, Roulette, Pai Gow or Baccarat??? Now that would be something to hear.

Baccarat percentage question

Jackie Tee — Thur, 08 May 2008 15:26:22 GMT

Hello board! Does anybody know for sure, that if the house actually shuffled up after every single hand played in the good game of Baccarat, if the VIG would change at all or would it stay exactly the same? Here's one for all you MATH-BOYS! Thanks... J.T.

From right betting to wrong betting, craps.

James Fritz — Thur, 08 May 2008 00:57:35 GMT

Hi.I'm still learning craps with mixed results.I don't know <I'm sure there's a thread somewhere on this site that talks about this> about going from right betting to dark betting in a game.

My problem is the following.

1/3 est. I will 7 out early, like 1-3 rolls after point is established.
1/3 est. I will 7 out around roll 4-7.
1/3 est. I will 7 out beyond the 7th roll.

I'm a decent pass line bettor, I'll make some come out roll winners, and some passes.I'm still learning how to roll the dice better.

Isn't there a method of play, to take advantage of my current situation?

I don't roll a lot of horn numbers, mainly I roll 5,6,7,8,9 &10.

I know that skill and bankroll matters, but it would be nice to be a more consistent winner.

The tables I have to deal with in my region, are $5, $10, $15 with limits ranging from $100-$1000.

Can't I make place bets and don't bets, that would work with how I am rolling?

I must make a pass line bet to roll the dice.

The casinos I play dice at are pretty fair for business dealings at this time.

What would you do in my position?

Throwing from the don't side is iffy, because I do make passes.I don't roll a lot of 2's and 3's, so profiting off of the don't pass, would be hard.

I am going to purchase the Mad Professor's book soon too, and I have John's Advance book, for those that I know that may roll differently than I do, to take advantage of the 6 and 8 plays.

Maybe I'm a little scared at this game, but I do think I can play it better, the players <most> see it and likewise for the casino.

One of the casinos has a female box man, and she's friendly to all of us players, so how good is that :).

Help is always appreciated.

I do make hard way bets, so I could play the 6,8,10 hard too.

Best wishes.

James Fritz

Improved Pass-Odds Scheme

david mcclung — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:24:49 GMT

Would like any and all opinions about this pass-odds phenonomen that I have noticed for years and finally betting with it. I am saying that most of the seven outs occur within the first two rolls after the pass point number is established. AND if the roll continues beyond that, then there is increased probability of the shooter making his point. Even if he makes several pass points on the current roll, that the seven out will likely occur within the first 1-2 rolls after a pass point is established whether it is his first pass point number or fourth pass point number. So with the above prognosis, I have been winning betting single odds on the first one-two rolls after any pass point is established, then at least 4x odds if the roll continues. Believe it or not it works, so far at least. I have found that the following works best: New shooter: single odds for the first two rolls after the pass-point number is established, the latest has to be a box number, then increase odds to four times odds. If he makes his first pass-point, then on all furthur pass points then single odds until he rolls one box number post point, then upping odds to four times odds. That is it, now on the rare hot shooter, then and only then expand out and go for the big win. $600 session bankroll is plenty for $5 minimum tables.

New Roulette single zero machines?

Jackee Tee — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:48:26 GMT

So what is anybody's take on those new Roulette single zero machines that are popping up all over the Casino floors throughout the USA? Think they can be rigged? Are they definitely rigged? That's my ONLY concern w/them.

Sic Bo with Labouchere

Greg — Wed, 07 May 2008 11:16:07 GMT

I ran a comuter simulation session using Phantom's Las Vegas Experience software of the Sic Bo game using the Labouchere system outlined in JP Money Management For Gambler's with the following outcome :

Session Bankroll Buy In : $200.00
Session Win Goal : $60.00
Session Win Percentage : 30%
Chip Unit : $10.00
Session Cash Out : $290.00
Session Profit : $90.00
Session Percentage : +45%

I used the 1-1 conservative series as recommended for beginners to start until win goal was reached, then used the Guarantee/Excess technique to continue. The Sic Bo bet I chose for the entire session was the "Low" outcome for the three (3) dice rolled.

Althought I ran only a one(1) session simulation, I like how the results of using the Labouchere system parallels the results of roulette's outside bets.

Anyone else play Sic Bo's even money payoffs as an alternative to roulette's outside bet?

Pai Gow Insurance??

Steve B — Tue, 06 May 2008 21:07:45 GMT

Pai Gow Insurance??

My favorite casino has recently upgraded their Pai Gow tables to Emperors Challenge. Since I had given up on Pai Gow until last Friday, I had not wandered over to see the new game.

While having the same rules as Pai Gow, they have added a Pai Gow Insurance option.

Place a bet (minimum of $1) in the Insurance spot and if you get a Pai Gow, you get paid accordingly (i.e. no pairs at all):

9 high Pai Gow = 100 to 1

10 high Pai Gow = 75 to 1

Jack high Pai Gow = 15 to 1

Queen high Pai Gow = 6 to 1

King high Pai Gow = 5 to 1

Ace high Pai Gow = 3 to 1

Now, I am a firm believer that if the house is offering a Bonus its only to BONE US. Thus I do not play this or the normal bonus (straights, flushes, 3 of a kind, etc).

But I am curious, has anyone else seen this?

John, Am I correct in avoiding this drain on the bankroll?

Now when I played previously, I drew lots of Pai Gows. Or lost on the low/low pairsInsurance might have made sense.

However, after speaking with John the other day on Pai Gow and how I played, my errors seem to mainly be following the way the house sets hands vice following any specific strategy. John recommended I use the philosophy of setting my hand so as to reduce my chances of losing.

This is mainly in the area of how to handle the 2 low pairs. Vice splitting them, you place both in the low hand and the next 2 best cards in the high hand.

This is a slight variation however it did stop some of my losses. It also prevent 2 wins against Dealer Pai Gows but the adage of Its not how much you win but how little you lose keeps me plugging on.

While I only won $2.50 Friday, I did play last night and won $41.50 (buy in was $100).

I am certainly not tearing up the casino, I was content with the profit. I netted $84.50 for a weekday (win goal for a week day is $50).

Steve (the one from Albuquerque)

ROULETTE PLAYING.....

JOHN PATRICK — Mon, 05 May 2008 16:00:52 GMT

I have been to busy trying to cut down my over 300 e mails that have to be answered but I do remember that someone on the message board asked why I do not condone Roulette anymore ...........

And he/she wondered why I do not still include it in games to play ..........but I forgot who asked and wht the thread was (is).........

So, let me make this very clear .....roulette is still condoned by me as a game to play, especially the outside even money bets of Black, Red, etc .......and even with a the 5.26 so called vig.....it is highly recommended by me .........

but of course, since the math people don't understand this .........if you play those outside bets I just mentioned ..............MOST of the casinos on the double 0 wheels take only half your bet if 0 or 00 show when you bet thes 50-50 propositions.........

So, technically the so called vig is only 2.63

But Roulette offers more possible combinations of bets than any other game in the casino....and I definitely endorse the playing of this game over

Blackjack......a NO NO NO NO NO.........

Craps if you place the 4 and/or 10..........

Craps if you play the prop bets for no other reason than you HAVE A GUT FEEL one of those one roll bets will appear..........

Carribbean stud........

Video Poker.since they inserted that devastating chip into its gut........

Slots ..see above ........

Let It Ride (although I do not totally condemn this game where you risk one size wager to potentially win 3 of the same amount ........)

Big Wheel.........

Poker unless you are a perfect player .......

Hold em ...........unless you trully have a BR in a no limit kgame and are readdily aware that there are "ante buyers" that bet position and try to actually out buy the game ..........

And I would play roulette before I played the Pass Line in Craps ...........and NEVER the COME in craps as in never never never ..........in absolutely no instance (and I have seen some in the various posts and threads that have popped up here lately ..........and while I did not comment on their suicide mission................I would NEVER play the COME .......

So....for whomever asked about Roulette ....It is definitely not on the back burner with me ...........there are many MM methods of betting that can be utilized at that table and several type kbets made at the same time..........

JOHN PATRICK

Major Change For WSOP

Damian Housman — Sat, 03 May 2008 21:18:44 GMT

The World Series of Poker has made a major change to the final event of the No Limit Texas Holdem Championship (the Main Event). The tournament starts in early July, and in previous years would continue to play on consecutive days until there was a winner. Now, it will start in early July, as before, but then ...

From the WSOP news release:
"Under the new format the final nine players will play on November 9 until only two players remain. Once the action is heads-up play will be stopped until the following day when they will return to the Rio to play to a winner."

This is a major change. I can see advantages, in that it becomes less of a war of physical endurance. It also means that the nine finalists will be able to have a better view of how their opponents play. The WSOP will be televised from July until the final table in November, and the final two will be televised the same day it takes place!

Also from the WSOP news release:
"ESPN will begin its coverage of the 2008 WSOP on Tuesday, July 22. Viewers will see two hours of original poker programming every Tuesday through November 11 (except November 4 when a special preview of the Final Table will be aired at 10 p.m.). Telecasts will be aired at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. July 22 through September 30 and at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. from October 7 through November 11."

Daniel Negreanu was quoted as being in favor of the change (he is on the player advisory committee to the WSOP) because of the additional buzz about the tournament, and excitement for the final table.

You can read the release here:

http://www.worldseriesofpoker.com/news/bluffarticle.asp?newsid=1342

Back from Reno and other interesting places

Larry Mathews — Sat, 03 May 2008 14:24:51 GMT

Well, as they say, all good things must come to an end. Flying back the other night, I was thinking on how enjoyable it was to spend a vacation with the wife and close friends. From a players standpoint in Reno, your just not going to find a better place than the Peppermill. One of my friends even found a nickel 9/6 JOB VP at one of the bars in the casino. I really had thought that was an impossibility now a days. But, what really took me back, was how friendly the staff was there. I can not say enough on that. Although, gambling was our major activity, we were also able to take a great boat trip out on Lake Tahoe, spend a couple of nights in an 1860's built hotel outside of Virginia City, and even caught a bay boat trip in San Francisco on the way back. We were fortunate not to have had an earthquake while we were in Reno, but did see a large wildfire outside of Carson City. All in all, it was a trip that everything went right, from gambling to seeing some of the great sites in this country. Our next trip will be back to Vegas, but I can't see anything going any better than this one. If you haven't ever been to this area, by all means go, and stick to the off season when the weather is fantastic. Larry

Those Math Boyz Can Be So Annoying!

Ben Jammin — Sat, 03 May 2008 14:11:39 GMT

When the subject of trends comes up, the math boyz immediately counter with their rhetoric about the impossibility of a trend, be it table or some machine, say video poker,Craps, or Blackjack or whatever it is.

So I ask; have you ever won at the casino?
They reply, of course, and proceed to expound upon their genius, quoting facts and figures and the like.

The random number generator, the dice have no memory, the cards come out in such a random order bla bla bla.

So, why do we even bother? I don't know but I can say for certain that the phenomenon of trends do exist, but that it can not be explained by rudimentary phisics, and there is no mathematical equation to the contrary that will hold water.

Out of one side of their mouths comes the never ending flow of hot air over the vocal cords, and the out of the other side comes the example of their latest victory over the casino gods, based on their brilliance and intellect.

No one would ever have a winning trend, or for that matter a losing trend either, because that would not be possible, because trends aren't real.

So I ask How do you deny this, oh great and powerful masters of the universe?

Well, we're waiting, let's hear it one more time!

Oh, it's just that we were lucky that day?

Oh no, not again.

:-o:

Gambling vs Social Event

Don — Sat, 03 May 2008 01:08:50 GMT

Went back to the paw, (Oklahoma), not for mine gambling, but for social event at a table... I would only do that on a $2 table because gambling ethic and low roller status... Lost about 20 bucks, but it doesn't affect the 'gambling record', because it doesn't count...

SYSTEMS: Why NOT to use them!

Bachman — Fri, 02 May 2008 22:24:18 GMT

Okay, been getting lots of Email today regarding my earlier posts on the Professional gambling Thread ... everyone wants to know what I use ... it's a STRATEGY, NOT a "System!"

Here's a QUOTE from Johnny Chan the Famous Poker Player ...

"I'd rather be lucky than good!"

I suppose that may apply to the game of Poker, but actually, think about this ... did the VICTOR of any War WIN because he was lucky? I think NOT!

A person seeking to be a Gambler MUST be a "Strategist" of sorts. Using a "System" implies a guaranteed result at the end of combat, which we all know as it relates to gambling, there is NO such thing ... RIGHT?

Using a "Strategy" implies using a METHODOLOGY that will hopefully shape a WIN for you. Patton did NOT use a "System" when trying to conquer Rommel in his famed Tank Battle in North Africa during World War II, he used a "Strategy!" A methodical approach to ACHIEVING a "Possible WIN" in the Battle. A Professional gambler MUST take the same approach in order leave a WINNER! You NEED TO HAVE A PLAN and STICK with IT! You need to know that when certain occurences come to light you will have a TACTICAL Method to COUNTERACT this occurence! Strategy is everything in Profession gaming, without it, you may as well mail your check directly to the Casino and NOT bother in making the effort!

Hope this explains it!

Bachman

Gary Loveman's Chickens

Frank Stanton — Fri, 02 May 2008 22:05:27 GMT

continue to come home to roost. The "marketeer" destroyed the LV Showboat to the point that Arizona charlie's could not save it.
He blew up Bourbon street for a parking garage. Will the stock- holders catch on-(Aflac goat NAH, Nah,nah). This week we learned that the SHV/BC Horseshoe was tenatively sold to an investment co. He made all items in the two flag restuarants
ala carte, including the pine float, and the napkin dip. That ain't like Binnion ! The Harrahs page shows that all play will gain points on the tier level. I found that to be a lie. I show none at all from table games. My VP play allows a VERY accurate watch. The shoe was the top casino in the SHV/BC area, so Loveman bought it and turned the harrahs dump over to boyd and it is now sams Town. During the week there have been one or two $5 BJ tables; but at 5 pm it is all $10. They did go back to $5 carney games. The place is just like the Imperial palcae after they bought that-to destroy it. (apparently on hold) One more Morgue !
Loveman's marketing follies have failed to produce, so it is selling time. Which one is NEXT ? The present down turn caught the dummy totally unawares. Harrahs Entertainment is a slow motion "pile of iron horse." Frank-S